January 23 2024

Red Sea Security Concerns Impact Energy Markets

Navigating Geopolitical Waves: Energy Markets Amid Red Sea Tensions

Recent developments in the Red Sea region have emerged as a critical geopolitical factor affecting the energy sector this year. Rystad Energy's Vice President, Kaushal Ramesh, highlighted in a recent gas and LNG market update the growing concerns over security in the Red Sea, primarily due to escalating tensions involving Yemen-based Houthi militia. These developments have disrupted global trade, including drone and missile attacks on vessels, posing a significant risk to LNG prices.

The situation has led to Qatar Energy suspending shipments through the Red Sea since mid-January, with a shift in scheduling shipments to European buyers. The uncertainty surrounding these events, particularly in relation to the Israel-Gaza conflict, suggests an indefinite duration for these disruptions.

Notably, this escalation has prompted military action by the U.S. and UK, targeting Houthi positions within Yemen. This intervention reflects the complex geopolitical landscape, balancing regional relations while preventing conflict spillover into the broader Middle East.

The LNG market faces potential supply risks to Europe if the Red Sea route remains shut-in. Although the immediate price impact may be delayed, it's contingent on the depletion of Europe's gas storage. As of January, European underground storage facilities were notably below full capacity.

A significant portion of Europe's LNG supply in 2023, about 12.9%, was transported through the Red Sea from the Middle East. The necessity to reroute vessels adds considerable time and resource demands, potentially affecting shipping market dynamics and charter rates. This situation could alleviate current bearish pressure on shipping rates, but a rise in LNG prices is likely needed to see an uptick in charter rates, despite the anticipated increase in fleet size this year.

Military strikes by the U.S., UK, and allied nations against Houthi targets in Yemen have been in direct response to these threats to international shipping. These actions, aimed at securing maritime navigation, have already seen engagements such as the defense of the U.S.-flagged M/V Maersk Detroit against Houthi missile attacks.

The UK has also announced significant investments to enhance its naval defenses against drone and missile threats, reflecting the heightened focus on maritime security in the region. This complex situation continues to evolve, with significant implications for the global energy market and regional geopolitical stability.